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AgriNerds Develops Predictive Tool to Help Farmers Combat Avian Flu

The AgriNerds startup uses radar, satellite imagery, and telemetry to predict waterfowl movements and improve farm biosecurity

AgriNerds Develops Predictive Tool to Help Farmers Combat Avian Flu
miércoles 19 de febrero de 2025

By Agroempresario.com

The battle against avian flu, a highly contagious disease affecting poultry, has prompted many poultry farms to implement biosecurity measures. However, the biggest challenge lies in predicting the risk posed by wild waterfowl, which are one of the main reservoirs of the virus. In this context, AgriNerds, a startup, has developed an advanced predictive tool to help farmers manage this risk and prevent outbreaks.

The Origin of the Predictive Tool

AgriNerds uses Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), satellite imagery, telemetry (radio tags to track wild birds), and ground-based environmental data. These resources allow the creation of predictive models that indicate the location and movements of waterfowl, providing daily alerts about their presence near commercial poultry facilities. According to Maurice Pitesky, co-CEO of AgriNerds, the idea for this tool came from reading studies on how radar and telemetry data could be used to make predictive models about bird locations, initially focused on ornithology and later adapted for food security.

“What I read about using radar and telemetry made me think about how we could apply this to avian biosecurity. The infrastructure for this already exists worldwide, making it applicable anywhere in the world,” explained Pitesky, who is also an associate professor at UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine.

Improving Biosecurity for Poultry Farms

Avian flu is caused by the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) virus, and wild waterfowl are often responsible for transmitting it. Even something as simple as a bird flying over or, worse, roosting in a farm’s water source, can easily bring the virus into a commercial flock. AgriNerds aims to help poultry farms predict where waterfowl are located, allowing farmers to focus their biosecurity efforts on the areas at greatest risk.

Tristan Bond, co-CEO of AgriNerds, explains: "Waterfowl are one of the primary reservoirs of HPAI, and something as simple as a bird flying over or roosting in one of your farm’s water sources means you can easily bring the virus into your commercial flock. Our goal is to identify where waterfowl are and where they’re going so farmers can better prepare for these biosecurity risks."

AgriNerds has developed a tool that uses radar signals to track waterfowl movements as they take off at night. Waterfowl tend to roost for about 14 hours, and then all leave at once, which appears on radar like a storm—except it’s a "storm of birds." The data collected from the radar, combined with environmental information, helps predict the areas of greatest risk within a certain radius of farms.

“We look at a 1-4 km radius around the farm and use this data, combined with any recorded HPAI outbreaks, to determine the risk level—low, moderate, or high,” said Bond. If a farm is at higher risk, the tool will send email alerts predicting which farms are at the highest risk of encountering waterfowl within the next three days.

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A Growing Network and Additional Use Cases

Currently, AgriNerds has users across 20 states in the U.S. spanning over 1,500 farms, and they’re expanding their offering to hunters who are interested in predicting waterfowl abundance. In addition, there’s growing interest from companies involved in renewable energy projects, such as solar and wind, who want to identify the most suitable locations for their assets by understanding waterfowl migration patterns.

In the long term, Pitesky says it may make sense to think more strategically about poultry farm placement and how to shift waterfowl habitats to reduce overlap between wild birds and commercial poultry. He gives the example of California, which is working on re-flooding areas to rebuild habitats for wildlife and improve groundwater recharge, although the strategy so far hasn’t been executed in a fully strategic way.

The Global Potential of the Waterfowl Alert Network

AgriNerds’ tool could have a global reach, given that the infrastructure required to collect data already exists worldwide. The predictive models are based on data collected from numerous weather radar systems around the globe, making it an innovative solution with vast potential for improving biosecurity on poultry farms around the world.

Pitesky points out, “There are 44,000 commercial poultry facilities in the U.S., and if you’re a big company like Tyson or Perdue Farms, you need to be able to triage where the risks are. Our tool can help you pinpoint the farms most at risk and predict where the greatest concentrations of waterfowl will be.”

Looking Ahead: Reducing Risks and Enhancing Food Security

AgriNerds is not just about responding to current risks—it’s about preventing future outbreaks of avian flu. The ability to predict waterfowl movements with such precision can help farmers take proactive measures to prevent disease transmission before it happens. This kind of innovation plays a crucial role in maintaining food security, especially in the face of rapidly evolving challenges like avian flu outbreaks.

By leveraging technology like radar, telemetry, and satellite imagery, AgriNerds is positioning itself as a leader in the agricultural tech (agtech) space, helping farmers protect their flocks, optimize biosecurity measures, and minimize the economic impact of disease outbreaks.

The future of poultry farming is changing, and tools like AgriNerds’ waterfowl alert network are helping shape that future with cutting-edge solutions.



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