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Leaps by Bayer, the corporate venture capital arm of the German multinational Bayer, believes the global agricultural technology sector could begin to recover in 2026, although major exits and large-scale returns for investors remain unlikely in the short term. The outlook was outlined by PJ Amini, vice president of ag investments at the fund, who analyzed the current state of the agtech ecosystem and the areas where the company is focusing its investment strategy.
According to Amini, the sector is beginning to emerge from a period of adjustment following the surge in venture capital funding that characterized the early 2020s. Despite that shift, many startups in the agricultural innovation space still face structural challenges when trying to scale their businesses or reach the valuations needed to attract public market investors.
“We have to be honest with where a lot of the strategic players are in 2026,” Amini said. He explained that several of the world’s largest agricultural input companies are currently focused on internal transformations or strategic repositioning, which reduces the likelihood of acquisitions in the near term.
Among the companies undergoing transitions, he mentioned Corteva, while noting that Syngenta and the agricultural solutions division of BASF are exploring potential public market listings. Meanwhile, FMC has also signaled openness to potential offers, further illustrating the shifting landscape among major industry players.
Compared with other areas of the technology sector, agriculture has produced relatively few billion-dollar exits over the past decade. Amini pointed to Monsanto’s acquisition of The Climate Corporation as one of the most notable examples of a transformative deal in the space.
Because of this reality, Leaps by Bayer encourages investors to look beyond the traditional venture capital obsession with “unicorns” — startups valued at more than one billion dollars.
“If we look at ag and say, OK, let’s count the number of billion-plus exits we’ve seen in the last decade. Well, it’s Monsanto buying Climate Corp. End of story, right?” Amini said.
Instead, he suggested focusing on sustainable companies capable of building profitable businesses, even if they ultimately exit at lower valuations.
“I do hope we find unicorns. But people still pay to go to the zoo to see a bunch of zebras,” he added, arguing that the industry needs many successful mid-scale companies rather than only a handful of billion-dollar startups.
Within this context, Leaps by Bayer is concentrating its investments on several technological areas that could reshape agriculture over the coming decade.
One of the most promising fields is next-generation genetic technologies, including epigenetics, which allow scientists to modify how genes are regulated without altering the underlying DNA sequence. These tools could accelerate plant breeding and help develop crops capable of adapting to climate change and increasingly volatile weather conditions.
Artificial intelligence is another priority, particularly in research and development. According to Amini, AI-driven platforms can dramatically reduce the time required for scientific discovery, allowing companies to identify genetic targets, develop crop traits or discover new agrochemicals much faster than traditional methods.
However, he emphasized that AI must be combined with laboratory automation and advanced testing systems in order to translate computational discoveries into real-world agricultural products.
Another area attracting growing interest is the intersection between fintech and agtech. Digital marketplaces for agricultural commodities are increasingly incorporating financial services such as credit tools and risk management solutions, helping farmers gain access to capital in markets where financing remains limited.
One example cited by Amini is Grão Direto, a Brazilian digital grain marketplace where global trading companies such as ADM, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus purchase commodities from more than 90,000 farmers using an AI-powered platform.
While new technologies are expanding rapidly, Amini said the financial performance of agtech startups remains a decisive factor for investors.
In discussions with investment banks about potential public offerings, Leaps by Bayer found that companies typically need at least three years of consistent growth and between $50 million and $100 million in EBITDA to successfully launch and sustain an IPO.
At present, relatively few agtech companies meet those requirements.
Still, Amini believes 2026 could mark an important turning point. Several companies in the sector are approaching profitability after years of development, which could improve investor confidence and open new paths for exits.
“I think we’re going to see a lot of companies crossing the profitability line in 2026 which then sets them up for success longer term,” he said.
When assessing potential investments, Leaps by Bayer applies what Amini calls the “50% rule.” The principle assumes that early projections from startups are often optimistic, so investors evaluate whether a company would still be attractive if it achieved only half of its expected results.
“We’ve doubled down on the 50% rule, so whatever a company shows us or projects, we say if the company over the long run is doing 50% of what it hopes to do, are we still interested?” he explained.
The approach reflects a more cautious investment climate in which venture capital firms prioritize realistic growth trajectories and solid business models over aggressive expansion strategies.
Despite the challenges, Amini remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of agricultural innovation. As global food demand rises and climate pressures intensify, technologies that improve productivity, sustainability and resilience are expected to play an increasingly central role in the future of farming.
